Program and Development Research

Program and Development Research

Identifying the key drivers of the sustainable development of rural tourism with a foresight approach (Case study: Neyshabur county)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Zahra Mozaffari 1
Maryam Ghasemi 2
1 PhD Graduate, Geography and Rural Planning, Department of Geography, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Geography and Rural Planning, Department of Geography, Faculty of Literature and Human Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
10.22034/pbr.2024.429826.1394
Abstract
Considering the stable and complex nature of the tourism system and its high impact on the trends, events and changes of the surrounding environment, it is necessary to identify the most important components affecting the sustainable development of rural tourism in Neyshabur city with a forward-looking approach. The population used in this study includes 60 experts and senior experts in rural tourism. In this study, 66 drivers were identified in the framework of PESTEL environmental analysis at three local, national and international levels. Of 66 drivers, 16 drivers were identified as driving forces in six dimensions. In this regard, the most important drivers affecting the sustainable development of rural tourism were identified as follow: of all the political factors, economic and political sanctions with an average effect of 4.68, of all  the economic factors, the high rate of inflation and long-term economic recession with 4.93, of all  the social factors, security in rural tourism destinations with an average effect of 4.70, of all  the technological factors, improving the quantity and quality of access to ICT and telecommunication facilities with an average effect of 4.57, of all  the environmental factors, adopting a policy Suitable environmental factors in rural tourism destinations with emphasis on sustainable tourism were identified with an average effect of 4.97 and among the legal factors, the special attention of the cultural heritage and tourism organization to the villages of the tourism destination/goal with an average effect of 4.73. Finally, it can be concluded that the success in achieving the all-round goals of the future of sustainable rural tourism in Neyshabur depends on the effective interaction between key factors and drivers. By using the identified factors and taking into account their priority level and their effectiveness on each other, it is possible to formulate, prioritize and implement solutions to maintain the favorable situation or to turn the unfavorable situation into favorable in different dimensions.
Keywords
Sustainable Tourism
Rural Tourism Destinations
Impact and Uncertainty
Environmental Analysis (PESTEL)
Neyshabur County

Subjects

Amin Beydokhti, A. A., & Nazari, M. (1388). The role of marketing in tourism industry development. Business Management Outlook, 9(32), 49–68.
Anbarlou, A., & Simchi, M. (1395). The role of futures studies in sustainable urban development. In Conference on New Research in Science and Engineering, Allameh Rafii Institute of Higher Education, 1–11.
Imani, B., Naseri-Manesh, A., & Mahdi, A. (1397). Reviewing and analyzing the role and position of indigenous and traditional rituals in sustainable rural tourism development: The case of the Savadkuh region in Mazandaran Province. New Attitudes in Human Geography, 10(2), 87–105.
Imani, B., & Razavi, S. M. (1399). Identifying the drivers affecting the future of sustainable tourism with a futures studies approach: The case of the villages in the central district of Sareyn County. Tourism Planning and Development, 9(2), 71–90.
Bazzarzadeh, M., Dadashpour, H., & Matouf, Sh. (1393). Reviewing and analyzing key factors affecting regional development with a regional foresight approach: The case of West Azerbaijan Province. Spatial Planning, 4(2), 79–104.
Borqani Farahani, S., Farhangi, A. A., & Mashhadi, S. (1392). An analysis of indicators affecting rural tourism development: A survey around Garmeh village. Public Management, 5(1), 41–64.
Behzadi, S., Rahnama, M. R., Javan, J., & Anabestani, A. A. (1397). Identifying key factors affecting tourism development using a foresight approach: The case of Yazd Province. Geographical Studies of Arid Regions, 9(33), 37–52.
Tourism Research Institute. (1395). Provincial spatial planning studies of Razavi Khorasan. Ferdowsi University of Mashhad.
Pouramaraei, S., Akbari, M. R., & Saberi, A. (1394). The role of urban green spaces in citizens’ leisure and urban tourism. Tourism Management Studies, 10(31), 71–84.
Taghdisi, A., Varessi, H. R., Ahmadian, M., & Asgari, H. (1394). Identifying and analyzing factors affecting tourism development in rural areas: The case of rural areas of Jiroft County. Rural Research and Planning, 4(1), 1–14.
Taghizadegan, M. (1393). The role of online social networks in the tourism industry: A policy-making approach to the role of new communication technologies in Iran’s tourism industry. In First International Strategic Conference on Tourism Development in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Challenges and Prospects, Academic Center for Education, Culture and Research (ACECR), Tourism Research Institute, 1–13.
Hajinezhad, A., Abdi, N., & Paydar, A. (1395). A comparative study of structural, functional and institutional factors of urban tourism elements and the factors affecting their development: The cases of Azadi Tower and Eiffel Tower. Urban Tourism Quarterly, 3(1), 93–108.
Hassani, A., & Rahimzadeh, M. (1398). Foresight of the tourism industry in Tehran. Urban Tourism, 6(1), 135–148.
Hosseini Machak Poshti, S. H., Divsalar, A., Moallemi, M., & Yazdani, A. (1392). The role of mass media in tourism development in Sari city. In First National Conference on Tourism Management, Ecotourism and Geography, Shahid Mofatteh Faculty, Hamedan, 1–21.
Heydarzadeh Dehkordeh, M., Ahmadi, H., & Azimi, N. (1396). Identifying key factors affecting sustainable tourism development with a futures studies approach: The case of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province. Third National Conference on Architecture and Sustainable City.
Heydari Sarban, V. (1396). Factors affecting rural tourism development from the viewpoint of local people: The case of Sardabeh Rural District, Ardabil County. Tourism and Development, 6(3), 177–198.
Da’i Karimzadeh, S., Ghobadi, S., & Foroudestan, N. (1392). Factors affecting the demand for international tourism in Iran: An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. Tourism Management Studies, 8(23), 131–154.
Dalavar, A., Qaderi, E., & Majdi, N. (1393). The role of social media in developing e-tourism marketing in Iran. Tourism Management Studies, 9(28), 1–16.
Dehdezadeh-Silabi, P., & Ahmadifard, N. (1398). Identifying key drivers affecting tourism development with a futures studies approach: The case of counties of Mazandaran Province. Geography and Environmental Sustainability, 9(1), 73–89.
Dehshiri, M. R. (1393). Examining the role of contextual factors in the importance of international tourism development: The case of managers and experts of the Cultural Heritage, Handicrafts and Tourism Organization. Tourism Planning and Development, 3(8), 108–126.
Rahimi, B., Zaheri, M., & Karimzadeh, H. (1399). Identifying and analyzing key drivers affecting sustainable rural tourism development with a futures studies approach: The case of target tourism villages in Saqqez County. Tourism Development Planning, 9(35), 90–111.
Saraei, M. H., Alizadeh Shouraki, Y., & Rezaei, M. R. (1399). Identifying key drivers of sustainable tourism and formulating the most desirable scenario: The case of the historic city of Meybod. Geographical Explorations of Desert Regions, 8(1), 113–131.
Sandgol, M., & Sharifinia, Z. (1395). Investigating obstacles and problems of tourism development: The case of Qaemshahr County. Geography Quarterly (Regional Planning), 6(25), 71–83.
Shahabadi, A., & Sayyah, A. (1392). The impact of economic infrastructure on tourism: A panel data approach comparing developing and developed countries. Tourism Planning and Development, 2(7), 25–43.
Shafiei, S., Rajabzadeh Qatari, A., Hassanzadeh, A., & Jahaniyan, S. (1396). Investigating the impact of information technology on sustainable development of tourism destinations to develop smart tourism destinations: A meta-synthesis approach. Modern Marketing Research, 7(4), 95–116.
Talebi Dadokolaei, Z., & Zali, N. (1396). Challenges of sustainable tourism development in Mazandaran Province with a futures studies approach. Third National Conference on Architecture and Sustainable City.
Alidadi Soleimani, L., & Zamani, Z. (1397). Identifying and prioritizing factors affecting attraction of international tourists: The case of Isfahan city. In Conference on Civil Engineering, Architecture and Urban Planning of Islamic Countries, Tabriz.
Fathizadeh, F., Azizpour, F., & San’ati Sharqi, N. (1398). Key drivers affecting rural tourism development: The case of Dizbad-e Olya tourism target village. Geography and Regional Development, 17(2), 123–146.
Qasemi Yalqouz Aghaj, A., Asadzadeh, A., Imani Khoshkhui, M. H., & Jabarzadeh, Y. (1396). Evaluating factors attracting health tourists using a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making approach: The case of East Azerbaijan Province. Tourism and Development, 6(3), 39–57.
Qanbari Gordunak, Z., Motaghi, P., & Maleki, M. H. (1395). Identifying plausible and probable scenarios for religious tourism in Qom Province. Master’s thesis, University of Qom, Faculty of Management, Industrial Management (Production and Operations).
Kouhi, E., Meybodi, H., Talashi, M., & Kouhi, E. (1392). The role of mass media in the development and promotion of sustainable tourism: The case of Amol County. Journal of Environmental Education and Sustainable Development, 5, 19–30.
Lahmian, R., Abouri, M., & Barari, M. (1392). The role of urban furniture in tourism development: The case of Sari city. Geographical Spatial Planning, 3(10), 101–120.
Lotfi Aghl, R., Mousaei, M., & Vosoughi, M. (1398). Examining the role of social factors affecting tourism development: The case of Hamadan city. Islamic Economics and Banking, 26, 282–295.
Mohammadpour Jaberi, M. (1396). Explaining and redefining the process of regional development planning with a strategic foresight approach: The case of North Khorasan Province. PhD dissertation, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Faculty of Geography and Urban Planning.
Mohammadi, K., Mohammadzadeh, M., & Sharqi, T. (1398). Identifying and examining factors affecting sustainable rural tourism development: The case of Zarrabad village in East Alamut district, Qazvin. Rural Development Strategies, 6(4), 427–443.
Marvat, H., Salem, A. A., & Khadem Ne’matollahi, M. (1397). Identifying factors affecting foreign tourism demand. Economic Research Letter Quarterly, 18(69), 275–306.
Mazloumi Nader, N., & Jalali, S. H. (1391). Social networks and the success of tourism policy-making in Iran. Tourism Management Studies, 7(18), 25–48.
Ma’adi, S. (1391). Estimating the aggregate tourism demand function in Iran using the ARDL method. Master’s thesis, Tarbiat Modares University, Faculty of Management and Economics.
Ma’dani, J., & Taghavi Zirvani, E. (1401). Prioritizing key drivers of rural tourism and their effect on improving rural household livelihoods: The case of villages around Sareyn city. Spatial Economics and Rural Development, 11(40), 233–249.
Mousavi, R., Mousavi, P., & Boroumándan, F. (1393). Futures studies as an applied knowledge in rural development. Third National Conference on Futures Studies, Tehran, 1–13.
Mahdavi, A., & Jalalabadi, L. (1401). Identifying key drivers affecting sustainable development of the rural system of Shahrbabak with a futures studies approach. Rural Space and Sustainable Development, 3(3), 58–82.
Najafi Chamazkati, M. M. (1390). A sociological study of factors affecting tourism development in Iran with an emphasis on attracting foreign tourists. PhD dissertation in Public Management, Payame Noor University, Tehran Center.
Nazemfar, H., & Alibakhshi, A. (1400). Tourism development planning futures studies: The case of Ardabil Province. Applied Research in Geographical Sciences, 21(63), 59–79.
Veisi, F., Safiary, R., & Manouchehri, S. (1398). Drivers affecting sustainable tourism development in rural areas with an emphasis on futures studies: The case of Oraman district, Sarvabad County. Tourism Social Studies, 7(14), 47–72.
Veisi, H., & Mehmandoost, Kh. (1394). Investigating barriers to the development of international tourism in Iran with emphasis on inbound tourism. Geopolitics, 11(1), 135–156. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.17354331.1394.11.37.6.7
Yousefi, F. (1389). Estimating the tourism demand function of Iran. Master’s thesis, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Faculty of Economics and Behavioral Sciences.