Program and Development Research

Program and Development Research

Factors affecting inflation in three development plans of the perspective period

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
farhad dejpasand 1
Mohammad Salari Shahri 2
1 Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran(Corresponding Author).
2 Master Graduate, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/pbr.2024.207289
Abstract
Examining macroeconomic indicators is one of the most important issues in evaluating the performance of the vision and development plans. Considering that the 4th, 5th, and 6th development programs were in the vision, the purpose of this article is to analyze the factors affecting the inflation variable in the three mentioned programs. The time frame of the research is related to the period of 1384-1400 and in the form of seasonal data. The research employs the system of equations. The model used is a recursive model. Two equations are considered: the first one is the liquidity equation and the second one is the inflation equation. In addition to factors affecting inflation, factors affecting liquidity have also been investigated. Results show that the first equation, the government's debt to banks, the bank's debt to the central bank, the government's debt to the central bank, the net foreign assets of the central bank, and the coronavirus have a positive relationship with liquidity.
Moreover, the interest rate of deposits has a negative relationship with liquidity. In the second equation liquidity, the share of oil resources in the GDP, exchange rate, money-to-liquidity ratio, sanctions in the year 1387, sanctions during the years 1391-1394, and sanctions in 1397-1400 had a positive relationship with the inflation rate. Also, there is a negative relationship between GDP and inflation.
Keywords
Perspective and Development plans
Inflation
System of Equations and Recursive Model
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