Program and Development Research

Program and Development Research

Barriers to Development in Iran: A Causal Layered Approach to Diagnosis and Strategic Foresight

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Khalil Koulivand 1
Rouholah Bayat 2
Ahmad Reza Talebiyan 3
1 PhD student in Futures Studies, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, and lecturer at Khatam Al-Anbiya Air Defense University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor of Accounting Department and Faculty Member, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
3 Faculty member and assistant professor at Khatam Al-Anbiya Air Defense University, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/pbr.2025.504645.1503
Abstract
Development is a fundamental objective for all nations; however, Iran has faced persistent and complex challenges in achieving it. This study applies a Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) approach to investigate the root causes of underdevelopment in Iran, with the aim of identifying critical barriers and proposing forward-looking solutions. Adopting a qualitative research methodology, the study began with 11 semi-structured interviews with subject-matter experts and reached theoretical saturation after three additional interviews, resulting in a total of 23 participants.
The analysis was conducted across CLA’s four distinct layers: -Litany layer: 11 surface-level causes; -Social/structural layer: 24 systemic and institutional causes; -Worldview/discourse layer: 14 ideological and cultural narratives;-Myths and metaphors layer: 12 deep-rooted symbolic and cultural constructs. These multilayered insights offer a comprehensive understanding of the underdevelopment dynamic in Iran and serve as a foundation for designing future-oriented policy interventions.
Subsequently, through three rounds of the Fuzzy Delphi method, 27 out of the initial 61 identified causes were validated by expert consensus. The most significant final factors include international sanctions, brain drain, mismanagement, the rentier nature of the economy, bureaucratic inefficiency, conflicting national discourses, and deep-seated negative developmental metaphors. The study’s findings indicate that Iran’s underdevelopment is not merely the result of surface-level issues but is deeply embedded in its economic, social, and cultural structures. Addressing these challenges will require comprehensive structural reforms, a shift in prevailing attitudes, and strategically targeted policymaking.
Keywords
Causal Layered Analysis
Underdevelopment
Iran
Analytical Approach
Barriers and Solutions

Subjects

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Program and Development Research
Volume 6, Issue 2 - Serial Number 22
Summer 2025
Pages 253-280