Program and Development Research

Program and Development Research

Dynamics of Globalization, Economic Complexity, and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in OPEC Member Countries: A Network Analysis in Crisis Periods

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
2 PhD in Economics, Razi University of Kermanshah, Kermanshah, Iran
3 Master of Economics, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University of Boroujerd, Boroujerd, Iran
4 PhD in Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
Abstract
This study examines the dynamics of globalization, economic complexity, and carbon dioxide emissions in OPEC member countries using network analysis in crisis periods, including the global financial crisis (2006-2010), the China crisis (2014-2017), the COVID-19 pandemic (2019-2022), the Russia-Ukraine war (2021-2023), and the Silicon Valley Bank crisis (2022-2023). Using the quantile vector autoregressive (QVAR) panel method and the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) framework, the role of carbon dioxide emission variables, globalization index, economic complexity index, and composite economic index in transmitting and receiving fluctuations was examined. The findings showed that in OPEC countries, the variables carbon dioxide emissions, economic complexity and the mixed economy index act as the main transmitters of fluctuations, while the globalization index is consistently the key receiver, indicating the high vulnerability of these economies to global shocks. The interaction between the globalization index and economic complexity forms the strongest link in the network of fluctuations, and the U-shaped pattern in the connection of the variables confirms the increase in interactions in crisis conditions. These results emphasize the importance of economic and environmental interactions in oil-rich economies and can help OPEC policymakers design sustainable strategies.
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