Program and Development Research

Program and Development Research

Estimation of Labor Force Indicators (Unemployment Rate, Economic Participation Rate) at the County Level: A case study of counties in Isfahan Province from 2016 to 2023

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
hamed lorvand 1
Mohammadreza Lali 2
Pooya Alinian Jozdani 3
1 Department of Mathematical Sciences, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan 84156-83111, Iran
2 Plan and Budget Organization of Esfahan, Esfahan, Iran
3 Department of mathematic and statistics, University of Isfahan
10.22034/pbr.2026.561760.1606
Abstract
Economic-social indicators such as unemployment rate and economic participation rate, as key measures for assessing community development, have consistently been a focal point for policymakers. This study aims to address the urgent need of decision-makers for accurate unemployment rate estimates at the county level in Isfahan Province, which is challenging due to its economic diversity and migration patterns. It introduces a novel small area estimation method based on synthetic data, combining the 1395 census data with labor force survey data from 1396 to 1402 to simulate the province's synthetic population. This approach, utilizing advanced statistical algorithms while preserving data privacy, eliminates the need for costly editing and imputation processes, enabling high-precision sub-regional estimates. Findings indicate that this model not only facilitates seasonal monitoring of labor force indicators at a micro-geographical level but also provides a practical solution to overcome limitations of traditional sampling methods, contributing to the timely updating of the national statistical system and enhancing local policymaking.
Keywords
Small Area Estimation
Synthetic Data
Unemployment Rate
Economic Participation Rate
Subjects
Program and Development Research

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 18 May 2026