assessing the pattern of Trade in goods in the Persian Gulf region and Scenarios for Future

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Faculty Member

2 Shahid Beheshti University Graduated

Abstract

In this study, a small econometric model of scale with panel data for the years 2000-2015 is estimated to flow in the Persian Gulf region. The results indicate that in the oil, non-oil, and import equations, the most important variables are the crude oil prices, the country's gross domestic product, and the export of goods, which have the most important role in explaining the oil, non-oil exports and total imports of the region.
In order to predict the flow of trade, the first and second scenarios were considered for explanatory variables up to 1404 horizons. In the first scenario, the variables based on the IMF and the World Bank forecasts and their histories, and the only oil price variable in the first scenario based on its history and in the second scenario, are expected to grow ten percent annually. The result of the simulation of the econometric model in the form of these two scenarios is the volume of trade between $ 1500 to $ 1,900 billion for 2025 in the region and, on the other hand, the trade balance of the region in the year 2025 is between 450 to 650 billion positive. Therefore, in 2025, according to the first scenario, about 44% of the region's exports of oil and petroleum products, and according to the second scenario, is about 58%.

Keywords

References

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Program and Development Research
Volume 1, Issue 1
June 2020
Pages 207-243

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