پژوهش های برنامه و توسعه

پژوهش های برنامه و توسعه

سیاست‌گذاری کوانتومی: سناریوپردازی در بستر عدم‌قطعیت‌ها و تلاطم‌های محیطی کسب‌وکار

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دوره دکتری رشته مدیریت بازرگانی گرایش مدیریت سیاستگذاری بازرگانی ،پردیس بین المللی ارس دانشگاه تهران، ایران
2 دانشیار، دانشکدگان مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، ایران (عضو هیأت علمی مدعو پردیس بین المللی ارس دانشگاه تهران)
3 دانشیار، دانشکده علوم پایه، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی(ره) (عضو هیأت علمی مدعو پردیس بین المللی ارس دانشگاه تهران)
4 دانشیار، سی‌آی‌آی‌سی‌ای‌اس‌آی، دانشکده علوم و فناوری، پلی‌تکنیک پورتو، ۴۶۱۰ فلگویراس، پرتغال (عضو هیأت علمی مدعو پردیس بین المللی ارس دانشگاه تهران)
چکیده
سازمان‏ها و کسب و کارها در دنیای کنونی با شتابِ روند تحولات فناوری و تغییرات اقتصادی، بیش‏ازپیش با چالش‌هایی مواجه هستند که منشأ آنها به‏طورعمده عدم قطعیت‌های پیچیده و متغیر محیطی است. این پژوهش با یک رویکرد نوآورانه و برمبنای ارائۀ روش‌های مؤثر برای مواجهه با عدم قطعیت‌های ساختاریافته و پویا، به بررسی کاربرد اصول مکانیک کوانتومی در مدیریت استراتژیک و پیش‌بینی رفتارهای اقتصادی می‌پردازد و نشان می‌دهد که تحلیل کوانتومی مبتنی بر رهیافت از علم فیزیک چگونه می‌تواند به شناسایی و مدیریت بهتر عدم قطعیت‌ها کمک کند. این تحقیق بااستفاده از دو حالت مختلف مدار کوانتومی، تأثیر تعاملات پیچیده و ناپایداری‌های اقتصادی بر سیستم‌های کسب‌ و کار ارزیابی شده است: حالت اول، به تحلیل تعاملات گسترده می‌پردازد، حالت دوم نیز بر تعاملات محدود و خاص متمرکز است. نتایج نشان می‌دهند که مدارهای کوانتومی قادرند سناریوهای متعددی را در زمینه‌های اقتصادی تحلیل کرده و سناریوهای کاهش ریسک و بهبود تصمیم‌گیری‌های استراتژیک را هدایت کنند. بهره‌گیری از این فناوری نوین، امکان درک عمیق‌تری از پیچیدگی‌های محیطی و تعاملات موجود را به شرکت‌ها اعطاء می‌کند تا فرآیندهای تصمیم‌گیری را بهینه کرده و فرصت‌های جدیدی را کشف کنند. استفاده از تحلیل‌های کوانتومی دقیق، فرصت‌های جدیدی برای کاهش ریسک و بهبود فرآیندهای تصمیم‌گیری ایجاد می‌کند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Navigating Uncertainty in Complex Environments: Quantum-Inspired Scenario Planning for Business Policy

نویسندگان English

Morteza Hadizadeh 1
Aidin Salamzadeh 2
Manouchehr Ansari 2
Babak Mohammadhosseini 3
Vitor Braga 4
1 (M.Sc. or Ph.D) student in Business Management (Business Policy-Making) at Aras International Campus, University of Tehran Associate Professor, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Iran (Aras International Campus, University of Tehran)
2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Iran (Aras International Campus, University of Tehran)
3 Associate Professor, Faculty of Basic Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Iran (Aras International Campus, University of Tehran)
4 Associate Professor, CIICESI, ESTG, Polytechnic of Porto, 4610 Felgueiras, Portugal (Aras International Campus, University of Tehran)
چکیده English

In today’s rapidly evolving technological and economic landscape, organizations and businesses face unprecedented challenges, primarily stemming from complex and dynamic environmental uncertainties. This study adopts an innovative approach, proposing effective methods to address structured and dynamic uncertainties by applying principles of quantum mechanics to strategic management and economic behavior forecasting. It demonstrates how quantum-inspired analytical frameworks—rooted in physics—can enhance the identification and management of uncertainties. Using two distinct quantum circuit models, this research evaluates the impact of intricate interactions and economic volatilities on business systems: • Model 1 analyzes broad scale interactions, • Model 2 focuses on localized, specific interactions. Findings reveal that quantum circuits can: • Simulate multiple economic scenarios, • Guide risk-mitigation strategies, • Improve strategic decision-making. By leveraging this cutting-edge technology, companies gain deeper insights into environmental complexities and interactions, enabling optimized decision making processes and uncovering new opportunities. Precise quantum analytics offer novel pathways to reduce risk and refine dynamic policy formulation.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Quantum mechanics
strategic management
uncertainty analysis
quantum modeling
dynamic policy-making
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