نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
This study aims to investigate the role of the interest rate channel in the asymmetric transmission of monetary shocks to the monetary base in Iran. The main innovation is to separate interbank interest rate shocks into positive and negative components and to test the hypothesis that the monetary base responds asymmetric to contractionary and expansionary policies. Using the NARDL model and seasonal data from 1990 to 2024, this study shows that a positive interest rate shock (contractionary policy) has a significant reducing effect on the monetary base in the short run with a coefficient of -0.16 and in the long run with a coefficient of -0.23, while a negative shock (expansionary policy) has no significant effect. Wald tests confirm asymmetry in both time horizons. The exchange rate adjustment analysis shows that during periods of exchange rate appreciation, the effectiveness of contractionary policy weakens. These findings indicate that the central bank should pay attention to the asymmetric effectiveness of the interest rate instrument to control the monetary base and use complementary instruments in conditions of exchange rate instability.
کلیدواژهها English
