نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
The South Pars gas field, the world's largest gas field and the main source of more than 70% of Iran's gas, is facing a decline in production due to the approaching end of natural discharge periods and the delay in the start of pressure-boosting projects. It is estimated that the production of this field will drop from about 700 million cubic meters per day to less than 100 million cubic meters by 1430, which will have a detrimental effect on the country's macroeconomics. In this study, using the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and the Central Bank's 2016 social accounting matrix data, the effect of reducing gas production (in different scenarios from 5 to 50%) on macroeconomic variables has been examined. The findings indicate that with a decrease in gas production, economic growth (GDP) in all economic sectors, household consumption (welfare), government spending, as well as trade and its components, namely exports and imports, as well as labor demand in various economic sectors, will decrease significantly. To counter the effects of this imbalance, strengthening the supply side is recommended. However, the importance of demand-side management has also been emphasized.
کلیدواژهها English
