توسعه مالی و مبادله سیاستی تورم-بیکاری: شواهد تجربی از کشورهای در حال‏ توسعه و توسعه ‏یافته

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار اقتصاد، پژوهشگاه علوم انسانی و مطالعات فرهنگی

2 استادیار دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری دانشگاه یزد

3 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده

در ادبیات رو به رشد «اقتصاد کلان-مالی» در نظر گرفتن توسعه مالی به عنوان سیاست جانب عرضه کل و بررسی تأثیر آن بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی از جمله رشد، تورم و بیکاری حایز اهمیت است. با توجه به فقدان بررسی تأثیر همزمان توسعه مالی بر تورم و بیکاری، مقاله حاضر شاخص چندبُعدی توسعه مالی را برای 20 کشور منتخب طی دوره 1Q1979-4Q2016 با روش تجزیه مؤلفه‏های اصلی محاسبه و سپس منحنی فیلیپس تعمیم‏یافته با توسعه مالی این کشورها را با مدل خودتوضیحی با وقفه‏های توزیعی برآورد می‏کند. نتایج نشان می‏دهد برخی از کشورهای توسعه‏یافته و در‏حال‏توسعه با اعمال سیاست‏های توسعه مالی توانسته‏اند شدت مبادله سیاستی تورم-بیکاری را کاهش دهند؛ اما برخی دیگر از درحال‏توسعه‏ها (از جمله ایران) همچنان در دوگانه تورم-بیکاری گرفتار مانده‏اند.
در ادبیات رو به رشد «اقتصاد کلان-مالی» در نظر گرفتن توسعه مالی به عنوان سیاست جانب عرضه کل و بررسی تأثیر آن بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی از جمله رشد، تورم و بیکاری حایز اهمیت است. با توجه به فقدان بررسی تأثیر همزمان توسعه مالی بر تورم و بیکاری، مقاله حاضر شاخص چندبُعدی توسعه مالی را برای 20 کشور منتخب طی دوره 1Q1979-4Q2016 با روش تجزیه مؤلفه‏های اصلی محاسبه و سپس منحنی فیلیپس تعمیم‏یافته با توسعه مالی این کشورها را با مدل خودتوضیحی با وقفه‏های توزیعی برآورد می‏کند. نتایج نشان می‏دهد برخی از کشورهای توسعه‏یافته و در‏حال‏توسعه با اعمال سیاست‏های توسعه مالی توانسته‏اند شدت مبادله سیاستی تورم-بیکاری را کاهش دهند؛ اما برخی دیگر از درحال‏توسعه‏ها (از جمله ایران) همچنان در دوگانه تورم-بیکاری گرفتار مانده‏اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Financial Development and Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off: Empirical Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Ali Aboutorabi 1
  • Mehdi Hajamini 2
  • Sahar Tohidi 3
1 Assistant Professor in Economics, Institute for Humanities and Cultural Studies
2 Assistant Professor in Economics, Department of Economics, Yazd University
3 M.A. Student of Economics, Tarbiat Modares University
چکیده [English]

In the growing literature on “Maco-Financial Economics” it is important to consider financial development as a supply-side policy and investigate its effects on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation, and unemployment. According to the literature, the simultaneous effect of financial development on inflation and unemployment is missing. This paper calculates a multi-lateral financial development index by Principle Components Analysis (PCA) for 20 selected countries during 1979Q1-2016Q4. Then, the augmented Phillips curve is estimated using ARDL model for each countries. The results reveal that the inflation-unemployment trade-off is significantly reduced in some developed and developing countries by financial policies, while some other developing countries (as Iran) are still encountered with of inflation-unemployment duality.
In the growing literature on “Maco-Financial Economics” it is important to consider financial development as a supply-side policy and investigate its effects on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation, and unemployment. According to the literature, the simultaneous effect of financial development on inflation and unemployment is missing. This paper calculates a multi-lateral financial development index by Principle Components Analysis (PCA) for 20 selected countries during 1979Q1-2016Q4. Then, the augmented Phillips curve is estimated using ARDL model for each countries. The results reveal that the inflation-unemployment trade-off is significantly reduced in some developed and developing countries by financial policies, while some other developing countries (as Iran) are still encountered with of inflation-unemployment duality.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Phillips Curve
  • Financial development
  • Inflation-unemployment trade-off
  • ARDL
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