پژوهش های برنامه و توسعه

پژوهش های برنامه و توسعه

بودجه‌‎بندی کارآمد در دولت مبتنی بر هوش مصنوعی در آیندة ایران: سناریوها، سیاست‏‌ها و اقدامات

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 استادیار، گروه استراتژی و سیاست‏‌گذاری کسب‏‌وکار، دانشکدة مدیریت کسب‌‏وکار، دانشکدگان مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
2 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت بازرگانی- سیاست‏‌گذاری بازرگانی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
10.22034/pbr.2024.205536
چکیده
بودجه‌بندی دولتی نقشی حیاتی در تحقق اهداف اقتصادی و اجتماعی کشورها دارد. با گسترش فناوری‌های نوین، به‌ویژه هوش مصنوعی، امکانات جدیدی برای بهبود فرآیندهای مالی و بودجه‌ای فراهم شده است. هوش مصنوعی، با قابلیت‌های پیشرفته در تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها و پیش‌بینی نیازها، می‌تواند در تخصیص منابع به افزایش دقت و کارآمدی کمک کند. این تکنولوژی‌ها نه‏‌تنها باعث تحول در فرآیندهای موجود هستند؛ بلکه می‌توانند شفافیت و پاسخگویی در امور مالی دولتی را هم به‏طور قابل توجهی بهبود ببخشند. هدف این مطالعه به دو بخش تقسیم می‏شود: اول، ارزیابی کارآیی استفاده از فناوری‌های هوش مصنوعی مانند شبکه‌های عصبی و الگوریتم‌های ژنتیکی در بهینه‌سازی تخصیص منابع بودجه‌بندی دولتی؛ دوم، تعیین تأثیر این تکنولوژی‌ها بر شفافیت و پاسخگویی فرآیندهای بودجه‌بندی به‏‌منظور افزایش مشارکت و اعتماد عمومی. این مطالعه از روش ترکیبی استفاده کرده است. تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها ازطریق مدل‌سازی سناریو و شبیه‌سازی‌های مختلف بااستفاده از نرم‌افزار مولتی‌پل انجام شده است. همچنین، مصاحبه‌ها و پرسشنامه‌هایی با خبرگان در حوزه‌های مرتبط ترتیب داده شده تا از چالش‌ها و فرصت‌های موجود درک بهتری به‌‏دست آید. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که استفاده از هوش مصنوعی می‌تواند به‌‏طور قابل توجهی در افزایش دقت، شفافیت و کارآیی بودجه‌بندی دولتی مؤثر باشد. هوش مصنوعی این امکان را فراهم می‌آورد که سیاست‌گذاران بتوانند تخصیص منابع را براساس داده‌هایی دقیق‌تر و پیش‌بینی‌های بهینه تنظیم کنند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Efficient Government Budgeting Based on Artificial Intelligence in the Future of Iran: Scenarios, Policies, and Actions

نویسندگان English

Ata Harandi 1
Morteza Hadizadeh 2
1 Department of Strategy and Business Policy, Faculty of Business Management, College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2 Ph.D. student in Business Administration - Business Policy, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده English

Introduction: Government budgeting is of great significance in assisting countries to achieve the economic and social objectives. With the expansion of modern technologies, especially artificial intelligence, new opportunities have emerged to improve financial and budgetary processes. With its advanced capabilities in data analysis and needs forecasting, AI can help increase accuracy and efficiency in resource allocation. These technologies not only transform existing processes but can also make a significant improvement in transparency and accountability in government financial affairs.
Objective: The objective of this study is twofold: first, to evaluate the efficiency of using artificial intelligence technologies such as neural networks and genetic algorithms in optimizing the allocation of government budgeting resources. Second, to determine the impact of these technologies on the transparency and accountability of budgeting processes to enhance public participation and trust.
Method: The study employs a mixed-method approach. Data analysis is conducted through scenario modeling and and the Multipol software. Additionally, interviews and questionnaires with experts in related fields have been organized to provide our audience with a better understanding of the existing challenges and opportunities.
Result: Findings indicate that the use of artificial intelligence can significantly increase accuracy, transparency, and efficiency in government budgeting. Artificial intelligence enables policymakers to adjust resource allocation based on more accurate data and optimized forecasts.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Budgeting
smart budgeting
artificial intelligence
futurology
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