پژوهش های برنامه و توسعه

پژوهش های برنامه و توسعه

عدم اطمینان سیاست‌های اقتصادی و تقلب شرکتی: مورد مطالعه بازار سرمایه ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشیار، گروه حسابداری، مؤسسۀ آموزش عالی آیندگان، تنکابن، ایران، (نویسندۀ مسئول).
2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد گروه حسابداری، موسسه آموزش عالی آیندگان، تنکابن، ایران.
10.22034/pbr.2025.482755.1461
چکیده
مطالعۀ حاضر با هدف بررسی رابطۀ بین عدم اطمینان سیاست‌های اقتصادی و تقلب شرکتی در بازار سرمایۀ ایران می‌پردازد. برای رسیدن به این هدف از داده‌های مالی 125 شرکت بورسی در بازۀ زمانی 1401-1392 (مشاهدات 1250 سال ـ شرکت) استفاده شده است. جهت سنجش متغیر تقلب شرکتی از دو شاخص Zآلتمن و بنیش تعدیل‌شده استفاده شده است. باتوجه به این‏که این متغیرهای دو ارزشی هستند، برای آزمون فرضیۀ پژوهش از رگرسیون لاجیت استفاده شد. جهت سنجش متغیر عدم اطمینان سیاست‌های اقتصادی از سه شاخص نرخ تغییرات تورم، نرخ تغییرات ارز و نرخ تغییرات رشد اقتصادی استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‏دهد که بین عدم اطمینان سیاست‌های اقتصادی (مبتنی بر شاخص تغییرات تورم و ارز) و تقلب شرکتی (Zآلتمن) رابطۀ مثبت و معناداری وجود دارد. همچنین مطابق نتایج آزمون، بین عدم اطمینان سیاست‌های اقتصادی (مبتنی بر شاخص تغییرات رشد اقتصادی) و تقلب شرکتی (Zآلتمن) رابطۀ معناداری وجود ندارد؛ درحالی ‏که نتایج آزمون اضافی (براساس شاخص بنیش تعدیل‌شده) نشان داده است که بین عدم اطمینان سیاست‌های اقتصادی (مبتنی بر شاخص تغییرات ارز) و تقلب شرکتی رابطۀ مثبت و معناداری وجود دارد؛ اما بین عدم اطمینان سیاست‌های اقتصادی (مبتنی بر شاخص تغییرات تورم و رشد اقتصادی) و تقلب شرکتی، رابطۀ معناداری وجود ندارد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Fraud: A Case Study of the Iranian Capital Market

نویسندگان English

Mohsen Imeni 1
Bahareh Faezi 2
1 Associate Prof., Department of Accounting, Ayandegan Institute of Higher Education, Tonekabon, Iran. (Corresponding Author)
2 Master`s Student, Department of Accounting, Ayandegan Institute of Higher Education, Tonekabon, Iran.
چکیده English

The present study investigates the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and corporate fraud in the Iranian capital market. The financial data of 125 companies between 2013-2022 (observations of 1250 years - firms) have been employed for this purpose. Z-Altman's and modified Benish's indices were used to measure the variable of corporate fraud. Since these variables are two-valued, logit regression was used to test the research hypothesis. Moreover, three indices were used to measure the economic policies uncertainty variable, namely inflation rate, currency rate, and economic growth rate. The results show a positive and significant relationship between the economic policies uncertainty (based on the index of inflation and currency changes) and corporate fraud (Z-Altman's). Also, according to the test results, there is no significant relationship between the economic uncertainty policies (based on the index of economic growth changes) and corporate fraud (Z-Altman's). While the results of the additional test (based on the modified Benish index) showed that there is a positive and significant relationship between the economic policies uncertainty (based on the index of currency changes) and corporate fraud, there is no significant relationship between the economic policies uncertainty (based on the index of changes in inflation and economic growth) and corporate fraud.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Economic policies uncertainty
Corporate fraud
Z-Altman's
Modified Benish
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