پژوهش های برنامه و توسعه

پژوهش های برنامه و توسعه

تأثیر وجوه ارسالی بر رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای منطقه خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا (رهیافت داده های تابلویی پویا)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 گروه اقتصاد امور عمومی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران
2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی صنایع گرایش سیستم‌های کلان، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی
چکیده
وجوه ارسالی مهاجران یکی از مهم‌ترین منابع ارزی برای کشورهای در حال توسعه محسوب می‌شود که می‌تواند نقش مؤثری در بهبود شاخص‌های کلان اقتصادی، به‌ویژه رشد اقتصادی، ایفا کند. با این حال، اثربخشی این منابع به عوامل زمینه‌ای متعددی وابسته است. این مطالعه با هدف بررسی تأثیر وجوه ارسالی بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای منطقه خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا (MENA) طی سال‌های ۲۰۱۰ تا ۲۰۲۲ و با در نظر گرفتن متغیرهای توضیحی کیفیت نهادی، توسعه مالی، اثر تعاملی توسعه مالی و وجوه ارسالی و سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی انجام شده است. برای تحلیل روابط میان متغیرها از داده‌های تابلویی پویا و روش گشتاور تعمیم‌یافته (GMM) استفاده شده است. این رهیافت امکان کنترل هم‌زمان برای ناهمسانی‌ها و درون‌زایی متغیرها را در مدل‌های پانل فراهم می‌کند. نتایج حاصل از برآورد مدل نشان می‌دهد که تأثیر وجوه ارسالی بر رشد اقتصادی منفی و معنادار بوده است. در مقابل، کیفیت نهادی در مدل اثر مثبت و معناداری بر رشد اقتصادی داشته است. همچنین، توسعه مالی و سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی در مدل‌ اثرگذاری مثبت و معناداری از خود نشان داده‌اند. اثر تعاملی توسعه مالی و وجوه ارسالی نیز بر رشد اقتصادی این گروه از کشورها مثبت و معنی‌دار می‌باشد. بر اساس یافتهای تحقیق وجوه ارسالی بدون وجود بستر نهادی مناسب و سیاست‌گذاری هدفمند نه‌تنها به رشد اقتصادی منجر نمی‌شود، بلکه ممکن است موجب تشویق به مصرف غیرمولد و رفتارهای سفته‌بازانه شود. بنابراین، نظارت و هدایت این منابع به سمت سرمایه‌گذاری مولد، امری ضروری است. در غیر اینصورت تاثیر منفی بر رشد اقتصادی دارد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

The Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth in the Middle East and North Africa: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach"

نویسندگان English

Majid Afsharirad 1
Habib Soheili Ahmadi 1
Mohsen Aghaesmaeili 2
1 General Affairs Economics Department, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
2 Master of industrial engineering, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

Remittance inflows represent one of the most significant sources of foreign exchange for developing countries and can potentially contribute to macroeconomic stability and economic growth. However, the effectiveness of these flows largely depends on contextual and institutional factors. This study investigates the impact of remittances on economic growth in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries over the period 2010–2022, incorporating institutional quality, financial development, and foreign direct investment (FDI) as auxiliary explanatory variables.
To analyze the dynamic relationships among the variables, the study employs a panel data approach using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), which effectively addresses potential endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity in panel models.
The empirical findings reveal that remittances exert a negative and statistically significant effect on economic growth. Conversely, institutional quality has a positive and significant impact, while both financial development ,FDI and cross effect of FD and remittance are also found to positively and significantly influence on growth.
The results suggest that, in the absence of sound institutional frameworks and targeted policy interventions, remittance inflows may fail to promote economic growth and could instead encourage unproductive consumption and speculative behavior. Therefore, channeling remittance resources toward productive investment is essential to harness their potential for sustainable economic development.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Remittances
Institutional Quality
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Countries
Dynamic Panel Data Approach
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